Kaya identity

The equations and diagrams (Použité vztahy, doplňující nákresy) (kliknutím zobrazit/skrýt)

{M=\frac{C}{E}\cdot\frac{E}{HDP}\cdot\frac{HDP}{N}\cdot{N}}

Where C/E is Carbon intensity, E/HDP is Energy intensity, HDP/N is Output per capita and N is Population. M is CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

Kde C/E reprezentují Zdroje energie, E/HDP je Energetická náročnost HDP, HDP/N je HDP na občana and N je Počet lidí. M jsou Emise CO2 z fosilních paliv.

Description of the situation (Popis prezentované situace) (kliknutím zobrazit/skrýt)

The model calculates future global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (blue columns) using "Kaya identity" formula. All values for years 1970 to 2009 are based on historical data and indexed for year 2009 to equal 1. User can set up values of four indicators (Carbon intensity of energy sources, Energy intensity of global economy, Economic output per capita and Total number of people) for decades 2010s to 2040s. Kaya indicators are shown in the graph by colored curves. Additionally the user can estimate CO2 emissions from land-use change (green columns).

Total emissions for period 2000-2049 are used to calculate probability of exceeding global temperature 2 °C relative to pre-industrial level. These calculations are based on the study "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C" by (Meinshausen et al., 2009). Their findings are following: "...we find that the probability of exceeding 2 °C can be limited to below 25% (50%) by keeping 2000–49 cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil sources and land use change to below 1,000 (1,440) Gt CO2."

Data of Kaya indicators for period 1970-2009 were adopted from:
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2011 Edition), IEA, Paris.

Data of CO2 emissions from land use-change were adopted from Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/14/data.htm):
1970-1979 (49,1 Gt), 1980-1989 (52,2 Gt), 1990-1999 (58,6 Gt) and 2000-2009 (34,9 Gt).

2010's 2020's 2030's 2040's
Zdroje energie
Energetická náročnost HDP
HDP na občana
Počet lidí
Emise z odlesňování
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